Why We Persist with Planning Change in Complex Systems

Why do so many people persist with trying to plan change?

We all know the adage that "the plan doesn't survive contact with reality". I used to assume that this was because most plans are just not good enough to survive contact with reality. But I know now it's not the quality of the plan, but rather the nature of reality that means plans won't work. Complex systems (and that includes all organisations) are inherently unpredictable. That means even if you had all the information you could possibly assemble, you still couldn't predict what's going to happen.

If that's the case, then your 10-step change plan is little more than a fairy tale - a time-consuming and unrealistic path to your happily-ever-after.

So what is the alternative? Some people throw up their arms and give up. But that's neither responsible nor what a decent understanding of complexity tells us to do.

In this sardonic video, Dave Snowden provides us with a simple alternative for a more appropriate and rational way to make change happen in complex systems:

1. Set some constraints
2. Launch some safe-to-fail probes (aka experiments)
3. Evaluate how the probes experiments are working and amplify/dampen them accordingly (aka do some learning!)

So why do so many of us persist with planning change when it's well established that it doesn't work? I believe some of the factors the contribute include:

• We don't know any better. From primary to business school and everything in between we have been taught linear ways of thinking
• It can look lazy not to write a plan. And it's better to fail and look good than succeed and look lazy!
• The plan is a safety blanket that helps us take the first difficult steps into the unknown
• And then it conveniently morphs into the scape goat when the change effort doesn't succeed. Blaming the plan is easier than owning up to using a fundamentally flawed approach

At On Purpose International we're trying to help our Associates learn new and complexity-informed ways of working. It takes some know-how, quite a bit of courage and a lot of practice! Good luck!

PS: Plans are not useless in all situations! In complicated situations (e.g., executing something we have done many times before) they are valuable and necessary. But when it comes to tackling complex challenges, we really need to wean ourselves off our safety blankets!

About the author

Tom Rippin is CEO of On Purpose. He writes about leadership, systems change and creating lasting social and environmental impact. Connect with Tom on LinkedIn.